Probability
Bayes Theorem — Manufacturing Plants
nta_pyq_2024_apr
Grade 12

Question:

A company has two plants $A$ and $B$ to manufacture motorcycles. 60% motorcycles are manufactured at plant $A$ and the remaining are manufactured at plant $B$. 80% of the motorcycles manufactured at plant $A$ are rated of the standard quality, while 90% of the motorcycles manufactured at plant $B$ are rated of the standard quality. A motorcycle picked up randomly from the total production is found to be of the standard quality. If $p$ is the probability that it was manufactured at plant $B$, then $126p$ is
54
66
64
56

Step-by-Step Solution

Key Concept: Bayes' theorem: $P(B|SQ)=\frac{P(SQ|B)\cdot P(B)}{P(SQ|A)\cdot P(A)+P(SQ|B)\cdot P(B)}$.
$p=3/7$. $126p=54$.
Correct Answer: 1

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