Probability
Total Probability and Bayes Theorem
Grade 12

Question:

<p>Box I: 3 red, 6 black; Box II: 5 red, 5 black. A box is selected at random and 2 balls are drawn. Both are red. Which of the following about \(P(\text{Box I} \mid \text{both red})\) are TRUE?</p>
P(Box I | both red) = 1/7
P(Box I | both red) < 1/2
P(both red | Box I) = 1/12
P(both red | Box II) = 2/9

Step-by-Step Solution

Key Concept: Apply Bayes' theorem. P(both red|I) = C(3,2)/C(9,2) = 3/36 = 1/12; P(both red|II) = C(5,2)/C(10,2) = 10/45 = 2/9.
Step 1: Calculate the probability of drawing two red balls given Box I was selected. Box I contains 3 red balls and 6 black balls, for a total of 9 balls. The probability of drawing 2 red balls from Box I, denoted as $P(\text{both red | Box I})$, is calculated using combinations. $$P(\text{both red | Box I}) = \frac{\binom{3}{2}}{\binom{9}{2}}$$ $$P(\text{both red | Box I}) = \frac{\frac{3 \times 2}{2 \times 1}}{\frac{9 \times 8}{2 \times 1}} = \frac{3}{36} = \frac{1}{12}$$ This confirms that Option 3: $P(\text{both red | Box I}) = 1/12$ is TRUE. Step 2: Calculate the probability of drawing two red balls given Box II was selected. Box II contains 5 red balls and 5 black balls, for a total of 10 balls. The probability of drawing 2 red balls from Box II, denoted as $P(\text{both red | Box II})$, is calculated using combinations. $$P(\text{both red | Box II}) = \frac{\binom{5}{2}}{\binom{10}{2}}$$ $$P(\text{both red | Box II}) = \frac{\frac{5 \times 4}{2 \times 1}}{\frac{10 \times 9}{2 \times 1}} = \frac{10}{45} = \frac{2}{9}$$ This confirms that Option 4: $P(\text{both red | Box II}) = 2/9$ is TRUE. Step 3: Calculate the overall probability of drawing two red balls. Since one of the boxes is selected at random, the probability of selecting Box I is $P(\text{Box I}) = 1/2$, and the probability of selecting Box II is $P(\text{Box II}) = 1/2$. We use the Law of Total Probability to find the overall probability of drawing two red balls, $P(\text{both red})$. $$P(\text{both red}) = P(\text{both red | Box I})P(\text{Box I}) + P(\text{both red | Box II})P(\text{Box II})$$ $$P(\text{both red}) = \left(\frac{1}{12}\right)\left(\frac{1}{2}\right) + \left(\frac{2}{9}\right)\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)$$ $$P(\text{both red}) = \frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{1}{12} + \frac{2}{9}\right) = \frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{3}{36} + \frac{8}{36}\right) = \frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{11}{36}\right) = \frac{11}{72}$$ Step 4: Calculate the probability that Box I was selected given that two red balls were drawn. We use Bayes' Theorem to find $P(\text{Box I | both red})$. $$P(\text{Box I | both red}) = \frac{P(\text{both red | Box I})P(\text{Box I})}{P(\text{both red})}$$ $$P(\text{Box I | both red}) = \frac{\left(\frac{1}{12}\right)\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)}{\frac{11}{72}}$$ $$P(\text{Box I | both red}) = \frac{\frac{1}{24}}{\frac{11}{72}} = \frac{1}{24} \times \frac{72}{11} = \frac{3}{11}$$ Step 5: Evaluate the given options. Based on our calculations: * $P(\text{Box I | both red}) = 3/11$. * $P(\text{both red | Box I}) = 1/12$. * $P(\text{both red | Box II}) = 2/9$. Let's check each option: * Option 1: $P(\text{Box I | both red}) = 1/7$. This is FALSE, as $3/11 \neq 1/7$. * Option 2: $P(\text{Box I | both red}) < 1/2$. This is TRUE, as $3/11 \approx 0.27 < 0.5$. * Option 3: $P(\text{both red | Box I}) = 1/12$. This is TRUE. * Option 4: $P(\text{both red | Box II}) = 2/9$. This is TRUE. The options that are TRUE based on the calculations are Option 2, Option 3, and Option 4. The final answer is $\boxed{\text{ABC}}$
Correct Answer: ABC

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